BlackSwan Zine

Notwithstanding a resumption of growth in sundry measures of economic activity, multifamily and commercial real estate fundamentals continue their slide across the swath of US metropolitan areas. Real Estate Econometrics projects that national occupancy rates will only stabilize in late 2010 and 2011, first in the apartment and industrial sectors; later, at office and retail [...]

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) — Capmark Financial Group Inc., the lender that filed for bankruptcy this week, was making billions of dollars in property loans just as investor Sam Zell was exiting the U.S. office market in early 2007.
In 2006 and 2007, Capmark originated $60 billion in commercial mortgage loans, most for office buildings, according to [...]

By Oliver Swan
The credit markets remain frozen. Real Estate Econometrics (REE) estimates that 2.88% of CRE loans were in default in the Q2 09, up 63bps from the first quarter. REE further estimates that the CRE default rate will exceed 5% in 2010 and expects maturities to peak at $1.6 billion in 2012.
Does [...]